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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
IF THERE IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT HAS TO BE VERY SMALL AND 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS ALSO THE 
ANALYSIS PROVIDED BY THE TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE METEOROLOGISTS WHO 
PLACED THE CENTER FARTHER TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE CONVECTION. 
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 45 KNOTS...BUT GIVEN THE DETERIORATED 
CLOUD PATTERN...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 40 KNOTS. BOTH 
SHIPS AND THE GFDL MODELS INSIST ON RESTRENGTHENING THE CYCLONE AS 
THE SHEAR RELAXES. THIS SCENARIO IS DOUBTFUL AND THE OFFICIAL 
FORECASTS GENEROUSLY KEEPS A 40-KNOT TROPICAL CYCLONE THOROUGH 72 
HOURS. DOLLY COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED.

DUE TO THE POSSIBLE REFORMATION OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE
INITIAL MOTION WAS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST KEEPS DOLLY...IF IT SURVIVES...ON A GENERAL NORTH AND THEN
NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK BETWEEN 12 AND 15 KNOTS...STEERED BY THE FLOW
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND A STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 23.1N  52.0W    45 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 25.0N  51.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 27.0N  51.5W    40 KTS
36HR VT     05/0600Z 29.5N  51.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     05/1800Z 32.0N  50.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     06/1800Z 37.5N  47.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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