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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
 
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE AS DOLLY MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST.  NIGHT TIME INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS AND THE LATEST
SSMI SCAN INDICATE THAT DOLLYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL
EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/08.  THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE REMAINS PACKED NEAR 54 TO 55 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE FOR ABOUT
48 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT DIVERGES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS AS THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  BY 72 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING EAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS DOLLY.  THIS IS ASSUMING THAT DOLLY SURVIVES THE SHEAR
AND IS STILL AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME.
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 20.1N  54.4W    45 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 21.2N  54.7W    45 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 22.8N  55.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     04/1800Z 24.3N  55.1W    45 KTS
48HR VT     05/0600Z 26.0N  55.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     06/0600Z 30.0N  54.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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