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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE SEP 03 2002
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE AS DOLLY MOVES TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST. NIGHT TIME INFRARED ENHANCEMENTS AND THE LATEST
SSMI SCAN INDICATE THAT DOLLYS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL
EXPOSED AND LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 45 KTS.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 335/08. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE
SUITE REMAINS PACKED NEAR 54 TO 55 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE FOR ABOUT
48 HOURS AFTER WHICH IT DIVERGES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE INTENSITY SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 TO 60
HOURS AS THE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION DEVELOP NEAR THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. BY 72 HOURS...THE UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN AS RIDGING EAST OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BUILD ACROSS DOLLY. THIS IS ASSUMING THAT DOLLY SURVIVES THE SHEAR
AND IS STILL AN IDENTIFIABLE ENTITY AT THAT TIME.
FORECASTER JARVINEN
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.1N 54.4W 45 KTS
12HR VT 03/1800Z 21.2N 54.7W 45 KTS
24HR VT 04/0600Z 22.8N 55.0W 45 KTS
36HR VT 04/1800Z 24.3N 55.1W 45 KTS
48HR VT 05/0600Z 26.0N 55.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 06/0600Z 30.0N 54.0W 45 KTS
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