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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002
 
EARLIER THE DEEP CONVECTION WAS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER...NOW IT IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST.  IT APPEARS THAT THE
SYSTEM IS STILL STRUGGLING AND TRYING TO GET ORGANIZED.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT...BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB.

DOLLY CONTINUES TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 320/10.  THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE
STRONG MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS GRADUALLY TURNING DOLLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
IS ALONG THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND SLIGHTLY TO
THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
UNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT
THE CYCLONE. LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST AFTER THIS TIME.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 16.7N  52.1W    40 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 17.7N  53.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.2N  53.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 20.8N  53.8W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 22.2N  54.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 24.0N  54.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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