HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002
 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE 
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND 
OF DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT 
FROM SAB. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE STRONG 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH LOCATED NORTH OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS 
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DOLLY NORTHWARD BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE 
OFFICIAL TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND 
SIMILAR TO THE AVN ENSEMBLE AND UKMET SOLUTIONS.
 
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS 
UNTIL INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT 
THE CYCLONE BY 36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS  
BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS DOLLY TO 62 
KT IN 72 HOURS IN SPITE OF THE 25 TO 30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR EXPECTED 
TO BE AFFECTING THE CYCLONE AFTER 48 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 16.1N  51.9W    40 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.2N  53.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.8N  54.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N  55.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 21.5N  55.3W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 23.0N  55.2W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN