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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002
DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THERE
IS A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM
ALL THREE AGENCIES. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35
KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE EAST BUT ONLY FAIR TO
THE WEST AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. THE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DOLLY NORTHWESTWARD BY
24 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN AND AVN ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS.
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT THE
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
MORE NORTHWARD WHICH WILL HELP TO LESSEN THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT AND
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL
FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS DOLLY TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS IN SPITE OF THE
20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.
FORECASTER STEWART
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/1500Z 15.2N 50.5W 35 KTS
12HR VT 02/0000Z 16.2N 52.4W 35 KTS
24HR VT 02/1200Z 17.8N 54.0W 40 KTS
36HR VT 03/0000Z 19.3N 54.7W 45 KTS
48HR VT 03/1200Z 20.7N 55.0W 45 KTS
72HR VT 04/1200Z 22.5N 55.0W 45 KTS
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