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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002

DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER AND THERE 
IS A CONSENSUS T2.5...OR 35 KT...SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM 
ALL THREE AGENCIES.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 35 
KT. UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE EAST BUT ONLY FAIR TO 
THE WEST AS SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS STARTED TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/15. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT 
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING.  THE MID- TO 
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE 
LESSER ANTILLES IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN DOLLY NORTHWESTWARD BY 
24 HOURS...AND THEN NORTHWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS 
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE AND IS 
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK AND THE AVN AND AVN ENSEMBLE 
SOLUTIONS.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS 
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR BEGINS TO AFFECT THE 
CYCLONE. HOWEVER...BY 36 TO 48 HOURS...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE 
MORE NORTHWARD WHICH WILL HELP TO LESSEN THE SHEAR SOMEWHAT AND 
POSSIBLY ALLOW FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING TO OCCUR. THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS  BELOW THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL 
FORECAST...WHICH BRINGS DOLLY TO 60 KT IN 72 HOURS IN SPITE OF THE 
20 TO 25 KT VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE AFFECTING THE SYSTEM.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 15.2N  50.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 16.2N  52.4W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.8N  54.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 19.3N  54.7W    45 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 20.7N  55.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 22.5N  55.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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