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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN SEP 01 2002
 
DOLLY RETAINS CONSIDERABLE DEEP CONVECTION WHICH IS ELONGATED
NORTHEAST/SOUTHWEST.  A QUIKSCAT PASS AT 21Z SHOWED AN OPEN
WAVE...BUT A RECENT TRMM PASS SUGGESTS A CLOSED CIRCULATION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 35 KT AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL INTENSITY.  DOLLY IS APPROACHING STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER BOTH THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS FORECAST
STRENGTHENING IN SPITE OF THIS SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FOR
VERY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO 40 KT OUT OF RESPECT FOR THIS GUIDANCE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/18.  ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL
GUIDANCE TURNS THE STORM NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS FROM A
PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE AND IS ADJUSTED JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/0900Z 14.3N  49.1W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/1800Z 15.1N  51.3W    35 KTS
24HR VT     02/0600Z 16.8N  53.4W    40 KTS
36HR VT     02/1800Z 18.3N  54.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     03/0600Z 19.8N  54.9W    40 KTS
72HR VT     04/0600Z 22.0N  55.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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