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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE SHAPELESS BUT IT IS STILL EMBEDDED
WITHIN A LARGE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE WHICH MAY BE THE ONLY FEATURE THAT
PROLONGS THE LIFE OF DOLLY.  ESTIMATED WINDS REMAIN AT 35 KNOTS.
THE CYCLONE HAS MISSED ALL THE OPORTUNITIES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT
WAS AT LOW LATITUDES...IN VERY LIGHT SHEAR AND OVER WARM WATERS.  IT
IS NOW BASICALLY TOO LATE FOR STRENGHTENING SINCE THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING VERY FAST TOWARD HIGHER SHEAR.  DOLLY IS BEING KEPT AT 35 
KNOTS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT WEAKENING MAY ALSO OCCUR.  
HOWEVER...IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL 
REDEVELOPS DOLLY AT THE LONG RANGE...MORE THAN 5 DAYS...AS THE
CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS BEGIN TO MOVE MOVE NORTHEAST WARD AT HIGHER
LATITUDES.  THE UK MODEL INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM MUCH EARLIER ONCE
THE NORTHWARD TURN BEGINS.  IT IS HARD TO SEE SUCH INTENSIFICATION
WITH THE STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES FORECAST FOR THE AREA.

DOLLY IS RACING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.  HOWEVER...STEERING
CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOON AS THE RIDGE TO THE
NORTH IS REPLACED BY A TROUGH.  THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A TURN MORE
TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH...AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AS INDICATED BY
MOST OF THE MODELS.  ONLY CLIMATOLOGY MAINTAINS THE WESTNORTHWEST
TRACK.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 13.4N  45.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.0N  48.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 16.0N  51.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N  52.5W    35 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N  53.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N  54.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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