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TROPICAL STORM DOLLY DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2002
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/17.  THE EAST/WEST RIDGE LOCATED
NORTH OF DOLLY HAS A WEAKNESS NEAR 60 DEG WEST LONGITUDE.  THE
GFDL...UKMET...AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL TURN THE STORM NORTHWEST TO
NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THIS WEAKNESS.
ONLY THE AVIATION MODEL STAYS ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AND THIS IS
PROBABLY DUE TO ITS POOR INITIALIZATION OF THE STORM.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT
36 TO 72 HOURS...BUT IS STILL SOMEWHAT LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE
GUIDANCE.
 
OVERNIGHT THERE WAS ANOTHER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURST WHICH HAS BEEN
DISSIPATING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE DOWN TO 35 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB AND 45 KT FROM AFWA.  
THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 40 KT.  WITH WARM SSTS AND
LITTLE VERTICAL SHEAR...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR DOLLY TO
STRENGTHEN AGAIN.  BUT DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER STRONG
VERTICAL SHEAR AT 48 TO 72 HOURS WHICH SHOULD THEN LIMIT FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS DOLLY TO 55 KT IN 48
HOURS.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 12.4N  41.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 13.2N  43.6W    40 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.2N  46.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 15.5N  48.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 16.5N  50.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 18.5N  52.0W    55 KTS
  
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