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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 06 2002
 
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL NORTHERLY AND NORTHEASTLY FLOW HAS KEPT THE
CENTER OF DEPRESSION EXPOSED WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER.  ALSO SEVERAL ARC CLOUDS ARE MOVING AWAY FROM
THE SYSTEM.  HOWEVER...THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
ORGANIZATION AND THE DEPRESSION MAY BE VERY CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH.  IN FACT...SATELLITE ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUGGEST 35 KNOTS.  AT THIS TIME...I WOULD RATHER WAIT FOR A
CONFIRMATION FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE LATER TODAY TO UPGRADE THE
SYSTEM IF IT INDEED IS A TROPICAL STORM.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST ABOUT 5
KNOTS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK STEERING FLOW.  HOWEVER...A
STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND SOON
FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A EAST AND THEN NORTHEAST TRACK OVER
THE OPEN ATLANTIC. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND IT SHOULD BE
MERGING WITH A LARGE FRONTAL LOW BY THE TIME IT REACHES NEWFOUNDLAND
IS 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SOLUTION
PROVIDED BY THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL BUT REALLY MOST OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON THIS TRAJECTORY BUT WITH DIFFERENT FORWARD SPEEDS.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/1500Z 30.3N  76.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0000Z 30.0N  75.5W    35 KTS
24HR VT     07/1200Z 30.0N  74.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     08/0000Z 30.5N  71.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     08/1200Z 35.0N  66.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     09/1200Z 47.5N  55.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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