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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT THU AUG 08 2002
 
BERTHA CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY RAGGED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
BUOY 42020 SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS PASSED 
CLOSE BY. HOWEVER...SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATE NEW 
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR A WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
LOCATED ABOUT 35 NMI NORTHEAST OF THE ALLEGED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IN AN 
ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH. AS SUCH...WE HAVE OPTED TO USE A MID-POINT 
BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS IN THE EVENT A NEW 
CENTER FORMS NEAR THE DEVELOPING CONVECTION. MAXIMUM WINDS OF 25 KT 
ARE LIKELY CONFINED TO BRIEF HEAVY SQUALLS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 260/3 KT.  BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO  
MOVE IN A GENERAL WESTWARD DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO 
BE NEAR THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST IN ABOUT 12 HOURS BETWEEN CORPUS 
CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE.  ONCE INLAND...BERTHA SHOULD BEGIN TO  
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  HOWEVER...THE 
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE.
 
SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP NEAR THE CENTER 
LIKE IT DID EARLIER THIS MORNING.  IN FACT...THIS MAY ALREADY BE 
OCCURRING BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA INDICATING A SMALL BAND OF 45 
TO 50 DBZ ECHOES DEVELOPING AROUND THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  IF 
THIS NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...THEN SOME SLIGHT 
STRENGTHING COULD OCCUR BEFORE LANDFALL.  HOWEVER...IT IS UNLIKELY 
THAT BERTHA WOULD REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH DUE TO ITS CLOSE 
PROXIMITY TO LAND. 

FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 26.9N  96.5W    25 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 26.9N  97.6W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     10/0000Z 26.9N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
36HR VT     10/1200Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
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