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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002
 
ALTHOUGH CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED...RADAR IMAGES AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. 
INITIAL INTENSITY CONTINUES AT 25 KNOTS. THE CHANCES OF BERTHA 
REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ARE SLIM BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND IN 
ABOUT 12 TO 15 HOURS.  HOWEVER...A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WILL TELL US 
THE INTENSITY LATER TODAY.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE 
INITIAL MOTION IS 250/07. BECAUSE THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE 
NORTH IS STRONG AND FORECAST TO PERSIST...THIS GENERAL TRACK WILL 
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL DISSIPATION.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/1500Z 27.6N  95.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     09/0000Z 27.5N  97.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/1200Z 27.0N  99.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     10/0000Z 27.0N 100.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW

 
 
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