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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 08 2002
 
WHILE SOME CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF 
CIRCULATION...IT IS LIMITED AND SHOWS NO BANDING.  QUIKSCAT AND BUOY 
DATA DO NOT INDICATE ANY STRENGTHENING HAS OCCURRED...AND THE 
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 230/7...AND AGAIN THE CYCLONE IS MOVING FASTER 
AND A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK.  BERTHA IS SOUTH OF A WEAK 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  MODEL 
GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE CURRENT MOTION AND IS TIGHTLY 
CLUSTERED...INDICATING A LANDFALL IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL 
FORECAST IS AGAIN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
THE UKMET AND AVN. 
 
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER BERTHA WILL PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY TO 
ASSIST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION...BUT NOT ALLOW MAJOR 
INTENSIFICATION.  THERE IS SOME CHANCE THAT BERTHA COULD REGAIN 
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT THE ODDS OF THIS DO 
NOT APPEAR TO BE HIGH.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0900Z 28.2N  94.8W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/1800Z 27.7N  95.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/0600Z 27.4N  97.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     09/1800Z 27.5N  99.3W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
48HR VT     10/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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