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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 07 2002
 
SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT EARLIER DEEP CONVECTION NEAR 
THE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS DISSIPATED.  HOWEVER...SATELLITE IMAGERY 
ALSO INDICATES THAT BERTHA HAS A VERY TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION 
AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER OR NEAR THE CENTER. 
SMALL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED TO THE WEST 
AND SOUTH. AS SUCH...THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY OF 25 KT WAS MAINTAINED 
FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 245/06. BERTHA HAS BEEN TRACKING A LITTLE 
FASTER THAN AND JUST SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. 
THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 
PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE SUITE. 
ON THIS TRACK...BERTHA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE THE CENTRAL TEXAS 
COAST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THEN MOVE WESTWARD AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATE 
INLAND OVER SOUTH TEXAS.
 
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN STRUGGLING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED EAST OF THE SYSTEM HELPING TO FORCE 
SOME DRY AIR INTO THE DEPRESSION. HOWEVER...THAT LOW HAS SINCE 
WEAKENED AND LOOKS LIKE IT IS BEING ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER 
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH BERTHA. AS SUCH...THERE MAY BE  
INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER UNTIL 
LANDFALL OCCURS. GIVEN SUCH A TIGHT INNER-CORE CIRCULATION...THE 
WIND FIELD CAN QUICKLY SPIN UP IN RESPONSE TO ANY CONVECTIVE 
FLAREUPS. HOWEVER...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN IS NOT CONDUCIVE 
FOR ANY SUSTAINED INTENSIFICATION TO OCCUR.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE 
PROGRESS OF BERTHA IN THE EVENT WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME 
NECESSARY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/0300Z 28.5N  94.0W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/1200Z 28.4N  94.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     09/0000Z 28.2N  96.2W    30 KTS
36HR VT     09/1200Z 28.2N  97.6W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     10/0000Z 28.2N  99.2W    20 KTS...INLAND AND DISSIPATING
72HR VT     11/0000Z...INLAND AND DISSIPATED
 
 
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