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TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERTHA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 05 2002
 
RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTER OF BERTHA HAS BEEN MOVING
335/10 OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CENTER NOW WELL
INLAND NORTH OF LAKE PONCHARTRAIN.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND
RAWINSONDE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A DEEP LAYER RIDGE NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE...WHICH SHOULD BE MOVING BERTHA MORE WESTWARD.  HOWEVER...
THE RAWINSONDE DATA SHOWS A SOUTHEASTWARD EXTENSION OF THE MID-
LEVEL RIDGE OVER FLORIDA...WHICH IS LIKELY HELPING THE CURRENT MORE
NORTHWARD MOTION.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE PRIMARY STEERING.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO
AT LEAST 1010 MB...AND THE MAXIMUM WINDS SEEN OVER THE PAST FEW HR
ARE 25 KT.  BERTHA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER
INLAND AND DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HR.
 
THE MAIN CONCERN WITH BERTHA IS RAINFALL AND THE THREAT OF INLAND
FLOODING...PARTICULARLY OVER THE AREA FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA
TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHERE TRAINING BANDS ARE POSSIBLE.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER
IN WASHINGTON DC UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT2 AND WMO HEADER WTNT32
KWBC.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/1500Z 30.8N  90.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     06/0000Z 31.5N  91.6W    20 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     06/1200Z 32.0N  93.1W    15 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     07/0000Z 32.5N  94.7W    15 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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