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TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT TUE JUL 16 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES ARTHUR HAS BECOME EXTRATROPICAL BASED ON 
THE STRONG TILT OF THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS 
RELATIVE TO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 
DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 997 MB BASED ON A 15Z REPORT FROM BUOY 44141 
OF 997.5 MB AND A 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND OF 39 KT WHEN THE CENTER 
PASSED JUST SOUTH OF THE BUOY. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES 
CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTH AND 
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY 
WAS HELD AT 50 KT.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 030/28. ARTHUR APPEARS TO HAVE SLOWED 
ITS FORWARD SPEED AND HAS MOVED MORE POLEWARD AS THE LOW-LEVEL 
CENTER HAS STARTED TO DECOUPLE FROM THE MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL 
CIRCULATIONS. SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN MORE TOWARD 
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT...WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE AVN 
AND UKMET GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER...UNLESS ARTHUR SLOWS AND MAKES A 
TURN TOWARD THE NORTH WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS...THEN THE CYCLONE 
COULD EASILY MISS MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHEAST NEWFOUNDLAND. 
 
ARTHUR SHOULD BE COMPLETELY EXTRATROPICAL WITHIN THE NEXT 6 HOURS... 
IF NOT SO ALREADY.  THIS IS SUPPORTED  BY VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED 
ABOUT 40 NMI TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...WHILE THE 
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DISPLACED ABOUT 60 NMI TO THE NORTH OF 
THE LOW-LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE 
OVER THE COLDER WATER OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC...A STRONG SHORTWAVE 
TROUGH WITH SOME RATHER VIGOROUS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT SOUTH 
OF NOVA SCOTIA MY PROVIDE A SHOT OF BAROCLINIC ENERGY AND PRODUCE A 
LITTLE MORE STRENGTHENING LATER TONIGHT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE 
CYCLONE FROM THE WEST.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM ISSUED BY THE 
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION CAN BE 
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE MARINE PREDICTION CENTER 
UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND 
ALSO IN STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE CANADIAN WEATHER SERVICE UNDER WMO 
HEADER WTCN31 CWHX.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 43.6N  54.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
12HR VT     17/0600Z 46.8N  52.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
24HR VT     17/1800Z 50.0N  52.3W    55 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     18/0600Z 55.0N  49.0W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     18/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW
 
 
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