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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN JUL 14 2002
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THE INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THERE IS FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED 
UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT 
UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE DISRUPTING OUTFLOW TO THE WEST.  ALTHOUGH 
WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE SIGNIFICANT 
INTENSIFICATION...THE DEPRESSION STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO 
STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES OVER FAIRLY WARM 
WATERS. THIS IS ALSO SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. IN ANY EVENT... 
IN 36 HOURS OR SO...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE TROPICAL 
CHARACTERISTICS AND MERGE WITH A MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE SHORTLY 
THEREAFTER.

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD...060/17.  A 
MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN 
U.S. OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY 
THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS TROUGH...AND MOVE AWAY FROM THE 
U.S. EAST COAST.  AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS PREDICTED UNTIL 
LATER IN THE PERIOD WHEN THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO TURN NORTHWARD AS 
IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL LOW.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 35.3N  74.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 36.5N  71.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 38.0N  66.0W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 40.0N  60.0W    45 KTS...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     17/0000Z 43.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     18/0000Z 46.0N  56.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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