000 ABNT30 KNHC 011229 TWSAT MONTHLY TROPICAL WEATHER SUMMARY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 800 AM EST THU NOV 1 2001 SUMMARY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY FOR OCTOBER 2001... FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... OCTOBER 2001 HAD ABOVE NORMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY. FIVE NAMED STORMS FORMED...TWO OF WHICH BECAME HURRICANES. THE LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR OCTOBER ARE TWO NAMED STORMS...OF WHICH ONE NORMALLY BECOMES A HURRICANE. IRIS WAS A SMALL BUT SEVERE CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THAT DEVASTATED SOUTHERN BELIZE. IRIS BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION NEAR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ON THE 4TH AND MOVED WESTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IT BECAME A TROPICAL STORM ON THE 6TH AND REACHED HURRICANE STATUS ON THE 7TH JUST SOUTH OF THE BARAHONA PENINSULA OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. IRIS PASSED VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF JAMAICA AND CONTINUED WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA. IT THEN INTENSIFIED...REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF 145 MPH...WITH A PRESSURE OF 948 MB...JUST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN IN SOUTHERN BELIZE DURING THE EVENING OF THE 8TH. BECAUSE THE CORE OF IRIS WAS SMALL...THE SEVERE DAMAGE WAS CONCENTRATED WITHIN A 60 MILE WIDE AREA OF SOUTHERN BELIZE. IRIS CAUSED AT LEAST 31 DEATHS IN THE CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...MOST OF WHICH OCCURRED WHEN THE BOAT M/V WAVE DANCER CAPSIZED NEAR BELIZE. JERRY DEVELOPED FROM A TROPICAL WAVE...BECOMING A DEPRESSION ON THE 6TH ABOUT 750 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATE THAT DAY ABOUT 400 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BARBADOS. JERRY MOVED THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH 50 MPH WINDS ON THE 7TH AND 8TH...WITH THE CENTER PASSING CLOSE TO ST. VINCENT. JERRY THEN BECAME DISORGANIZED IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND DISSIPATED LATE ON THE 8TH. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF DAMAGE OR CASUALTIES. KAREN ORIGINATED FROM A COLD FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA ON THE 10TH. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPED INTO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW THAT EVENTUALLY TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD CLOSE TO BERMUDA EARLY ON THE 12TH AND PRODUCED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 67 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH. THERE WERE ALSO UNOFFICIAL REPORTS OF SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 MPH...OR MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE STRONG WINDS CAUSED CONSIDERABLE TREE AND POWERLINE DAMAGE ON BERMUDA AND MORE THAN 23,000 PEOPLE WERE WITHOUT POWER. LATER THAT DAY...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATED SUBTROPICAL STORM ONE AND FOUND THAT IT WAS SLOWLY ACQUIRING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. EARLY ON THE 13TH...IT BECAME TROPICAL STORM KAREN AND STRENGTHENED INTO THE SIXTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON LATER THAT DAY. KAREN MOVED IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS AND REACHED A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 MPH EARLY ON THE 14TH ABOUT 400 MILES SOUTH OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA. KAREN EVENTUALLY MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA JUST WEST OF HALIFAX ON THE 15TH...AS A 45 MPH TROPICAL STORM. KAREN QUICKLY BECAME EXTRATROPICAL AS IT TRACKED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND...WHERE IT EVENTUALLY MERGED WITH A LARGE MID-LATITUDE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. HEAVY RAINFALL OCCURRED OVER MUCH OF DROUGHT-STRICKEN NOVA SCOTIA AND WESTERN NEWFOUNDLAND. UP TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN FELL IN LESS THAN 12 HOURS NEAR CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND AND WIDESPREAD FLOODING...THE WORST IN 100 YEARS...OCCURRED IN ST. JOHNS NEWFOUNDLAND. THERE WERE NO REPORTS OF CASUALTIES. LORENZO FORMED FROM A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC THAT GRADUALLY ACQUIRED TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE LOW BECAME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 27TH ABOUT 900 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES ISLANDS AND MOVED SLOWLY WESTWARD. LATE ON THE 29TH IT REACHED TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH ABOUT 1250 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES. LORENZO TURNED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TO THE NORTH ON THE 30TH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH. ACCELERATING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EARLY ON THE 31ST... LORENZO LOST ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 800 MILES WEST OF THE AZORES. MICHELLE...FORMED FROM A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA THAT GRADUALLY BECAME BETTER ORGANIZED AND DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ON THE 29TH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA FOR TWO DAYS...PRODUCING EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS WITH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. LATE ON THE 31ST...THE DEPRESSION MOVED INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST NORTH OF THE HONDURAS-NICARAGUA BORDER AND STRENGTHENED TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE. AT MONTHS END...MICHELLE WAS GATHERING STRENGTH AS IT MOVED SLOWLY NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. EARLY MEDIA REPORTS INDICATE THAT FLOODING ASSOCIATED WITH MICHELLE HAD ALREADY KILLED THREE PEOPLE IN HONDURAS. SUMMARY TABLE... NAME DATES WIND-MPH DEATHS US DAMAGE ($MIL) ------------------------------------------------------------------- HUR. IRIS 4-9 OCT 145 31 T.S. JERRY 6-8 OCT 50 HUR. KAREN 12-15 OCT 80 T.S. LORENZO 27-31 OCT 40 T.S. MICHELLE 29 OCT - 3 ------------------------------------------------------------------- FRANKLIN/AVILA/BEVEN/PASCH/STEWART