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TROPICAL STORM LORENA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   8A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001

...LORENA BECOMING DISORGANIZED...

PRELIMINARY REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE 
AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT LORENA IS WEAKENING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO
MAZATLAN.  SOME CHANGES IN THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE LIKELY THIS 
EVENING.
 
AT 5 PM PDT...0000Z...THE POORLY-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM
LORENA WAS RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.7 WEST
OR ABOUT 215 MILES...345 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH ...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF LORENA WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA EARLY THURSDAY.  HOWEVER...MOST OF THE HEAVY RAINS AND 
STRONG WINDS ARE LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...AND 
WILL REACH THE MEXICAN COAST TONIGHT.

LORENA HAS WEAKENED AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 50 MPH...  80 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED...AND THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT LORENA
COULD WEAKEN FURTHER PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS  
1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEGUN SPREADING ONSHORE WITHIN AND EAST OF THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE 
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 5 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...106.7 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  7 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 50 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 1004 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
8 PM PDT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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