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TROPICAL STORM LORENA ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001

...LORENA MOVING NORTHWARD...HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ASHORE OVER 
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT
ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO NORTHWARD TO
MAZATLAN.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT
200 MILES...320 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO.

LORENA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT.  ON THIS
TRACK THE CENTER OF LORENA WILL REACH THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE
WARNING AREA TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 60 MPH...  95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM
IS POORLY ORGANIZED...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST 
BEFORE THE CENTER REACHES THE COAST.  AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS 
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE LORENA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES
...280 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS BEGUN SPREADING ONSHORE WITHIN AND EAST OF THE
WARNING AREA TODAY.  RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS MAY CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE 
LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...16.8 N...106.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  9 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 60 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 997 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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