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TROPICAL STORM IVO ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT TUE SEP 11 2001

...IVO EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON 
WEDNESDAY...
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.
 
AT 2 PM PDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.3 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES
...250 KM...SOUTHWEST OF MAZANILLO MEXICO.

IVO IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH ...26
KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...IVO SHOULD BE PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...ANY DEVIATION TO THE 
NORTH OF THE TRACK COULD BRING STRONGER WINDS TO THE COAST.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES
...220 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA...AND 
THERE IS A RISK OF FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. 

ALL INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IVO.

REPEATING THE 2 PM PDT POSITION...17.6 N...106.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 5 PM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 8 PM
PDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
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