HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  22A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHELLE EXPECTED TO HIT CUBA 
LATER TODAY...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA... 
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.  A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR 
THE FLORIDA KEYS LATER THIS MORNING.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA 
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST 
OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL 
BAHAMAS.  THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE BERRY 
ISLANDS...BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT 
ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS 
CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR 
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.3 WEST OR ABOUT 205
MILES...325 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA AND 100 MILES...185 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 5 MPH...8 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE SHOULD BE
PASSING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH LATER THIS MORNING 
AND THEN ACROSS CUBA LATER IN THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS MEASURED BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT ARE 
135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN 
INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS...JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  HEAVY SQUALLS ARE 
ALREADY APPROACHING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 
OF 10 TO 20 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE. 

A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET...OR 6 METERS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA.

REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...20.1 N... 83.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 4 AM EST.

 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
NNNN