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HURRICANE MICHELLE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  20A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001

...MICHELLE A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...DRIFTING NORTHWARD...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS 
OF MICHELLE.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TODAY.
 
AT 1 PM EST...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.2 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES 
...275 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
MICHELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY BUT MOSTLY TOWARD 
THE NORTH.  A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH 
HIGHER GUSTS.  MICHELLE IS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE ON THE 
SAFFIR/SIMPSON SCALE.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE 
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  937 MB...27.67 INCHES.
  
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS...JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 
OF 10-20 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE.
 
REPEATING THE 1 PM EST POSITION...19.4 N... 84.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 937 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 
4 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
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