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HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 AM EST SAT NOV 03 2001
 
...DANGEROUS MICHELLE BECOMES MAJOR CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON
THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE...HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA... 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD
TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  A HURRICANE WARNING 
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED EARLY SATURDAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.
 
AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT 215
MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

THE EYE OF MICHELLE HAS WOBBLED WESTWARD OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
A NORTHWARD MOTION NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...IS EXPECTED TO RESUME
LATER TONIGHT.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE
WILL BE CLOSE TO THE ISLE OF YOUTH...CUBA...LATE SATURDAY. 
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120
MPH...195 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES MICHELLE A
CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTER IS 942 MB...27.82 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE 
CAYMAN ISLANDS.   RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-20 INCHES...WITH 
ISOLATED  HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF 
MICHELLE.
 
REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...18.8 N... 84.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 942 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 4 AM EST.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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