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HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST MON NOV 05 2001

...MICHELLE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF....AND ALSO
FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY AND THE DRY
TORTUGAS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA...
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. HOWEVER...THIS WARNING WILL LIKELY
BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS.  THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...
CAT ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BERMUDA.
 
A GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTHWARD TO JUPITER INLET.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE  79.4 WEST OR 
ABOUT 160 MILES...260 KM...SOUTHWEST OF NASSAU. THIS IS ALSO 
ABOUT 170 MILES...275 KM...SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI.
 
MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR... 
AND A STEADY INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE IS 
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS LATER TODAY...POSSIBLY REACHING 
ANDROS ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
HOWEVER...RAIN BANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF
FLORIDA THIS MORNING.  DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...MIAMI
BEACH HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 48 MPH.
WINDS GUSTS TO 45 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT MARATHON AND GUSTS TO 
41 MPH HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT FORT LAUDERDALE.  FARTHER EAST...
NASSAU HAS REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 39 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 58 MPH.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  50 MILES... 85 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 195 MILES...315 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  971 MB...28.67 INCHES.
 
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY 
HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE PATH OF MICHELLE.  IN ADDITION 
...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST FLORIDA THIS 
MORNING.

A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL...ALONG WITH BATTERING 
WAVES...IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST OF FLORIDA 
IN THE WARNING AREA TODAY.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 5 TO 8 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG 
WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...IS LIKELY OVER THE BAHAMAS ISLANDS NEAR 
AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE CENTER.
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...23.5 N... 79.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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