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HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN NOV 04 2001

...POWERFUL HURRICANE MICHELLE PASSING EAST OF THE ISLE OF 
YOUTH...EXPECTED TO HIT MAINLAND CUBA LATER TODAY...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. 
PREPARATIONS IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD BE RUSH TO 
COMPLETION.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA...
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED
THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT
ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED BY
A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND RADAR FROM CUBA NEAR LATITUDE 21.3
NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.1 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES...230 KM...SOUTH OF
HAVANA AND ABOUT 30 MILES...50 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLE OF
YOUTH CUBA.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR. ON 
THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHELLE SHOULD MAKE 
LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA NEAR THE ZAPATA PENINSULA LATER 
TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL. 
STRONG WINDS ARE SPREADING OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH AND NEARBY CAYO 
LARGO RECENTLY REPORTED WINDS OF 60 MPH...96 KM/HR AND WAVES OF 12 
TO 15 FEET...4-5 METERS.  SOMBRERO KEY IN THE FLORIDA KEYS REPORTED 
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...80 KM/HR.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 160 MILES...260 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER 
PLANE WAS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

RAINBANDS ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...AND
JAMAICA.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES...250 TO 500
MILLIMETERS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE AS IT
CROSSES CUBA.  OUTER RAINBANDS ARE ALSO SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND THE FLORIDA KEYS AND ARE MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA COAST.

A STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET...OR 6 METERS...IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND
TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL ON THE SOUTH COAST OF
CUBA.  A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE 
FLORIDA KEYS. 
 
REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...21.3 N... 82.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 12 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 PM
EST.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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