[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001
 
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHELLE EXPECTED TO HIT CUBA ON 
SUNDAY... 
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.

AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI
...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN
SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.5 WEST OR ABOUT 210
MILES...340 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA AND 105 MILES...175 KM
SOUTH-SOUTH OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE SHOULD BE
PASSING OVER OR VERY CLOSE TO ISLE OF YOUTH EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN
ACROSS CUBA LATER IN THE DAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  45 MILES... 75 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY A NOAA RECONNAISSANCE 
PLANE WAS  944 MB...27.88 INCHES.
 
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS...JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HEAVY SQUALLS ARE 
ALREADY APPROACHING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 
OF 10-20 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE. 

STORM SURGE OF NEAR 20 FEET...NEAR 6 METERS IS POSSIBLE NEAR AND TO 
THE EAST OF WHERE THE EYE MAKES LANDFALL.

REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...20.0 N... 83.5 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 944 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM EST...SUNDAY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
NNNN

Problems?