HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DRIFTS NORTHWARD...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE BAHAMA ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MICHELLE.  WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE UPGRADED AND EXTENDED
NORTHWARD LATER TONIGHT.
 
AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED 
NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.1 WEST.  THIS POSITION IS 
ABOUT 255 MILES...410 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA AND ABOUT 145 
MILES...235 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA.
 
MICHELLE IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  3 MPH... 6 KM/HR.  THE 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHEAST 
WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED TO 5 TO 10 MPH...8 TO 16 KPH.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  35 MILES... 55 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  933 MB...27.55 INCHES.
  
OUTER RAINBANDS ARE LOCATED OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA...THE CAYMAN 
ISLANDS...JAMAICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 
OF 10-20 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF MICHELLE.
 
REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...19.6 N... 84.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...135 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 933 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
NNNN