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HURRICANE MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
 
...DANGEROUS MICHELLE HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA... 
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR CUBA FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD
TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WARNING 
FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY BE REQUIRED EARLY SATURDAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE. WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE
REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA ON SATURDAY.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE MICHELLE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 220
MILES...350 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.

MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND THIS 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS 
TRACK...THE CORE OF THIS DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILL BE CLOSE TO THE 
ISLE OF YOUTH...CUBA...LATE SATURDAY. 
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  MICHELLE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  30 MILES... 45 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 145 MILES...230 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 957 MB...28.26 INCHES.

OUTER RAINBANDS  ARE ALREADY SPREADING OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND THE 
CAYMAN ISLANDS.   RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-20 INCHES...WITH 
ISOLATED  HIGHER AMOUNTS...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR THE PATH OF 
MICHELLE.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...18.8 N... 84.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 957 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 4 AM
EST...SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
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