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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001

...MICHELLE ALMOST A HURRICANE...MOTION SLOW AND ERRATIC...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES IN
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...HAVANA CITY...MATANZAS...
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.9 WEST OR NEAR
SWAN ISLAND.  THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
MICHELLE IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR
3 MPH... 6 KM/HR...AND A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR  70 MPH...110
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MICHELLE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER 
TODAY.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER DATA IS  985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

INTERMITTENT BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OUTER BANDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO.  AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES...75 TO 150 MILLIMETERS...OF 
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA 
TONIGHT WHERE EXTENSIVE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.

REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...17.6 N... 83.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  3 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 985 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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