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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU NOV 01 2001
 
...MICHELLE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES IN
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...HAVANA CITY...MATANZAS... 
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.9 WEST OR OVER 
SWAN ISLAND. THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 300 MILES...485 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST 
OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
 
MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH
...7 KM/HR...AND A SLOW NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS 
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LATEST SATELLITE INFORMATION SUGGESTS THAT MICHELLE IS 
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MICHELLE MAY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT 
OR FRIDAY.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE THE STORM IN A FEW HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  991 MB...29.26 INCHES.
  
INTERMITTENT BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FROM OUTER BANDS WILL OCCUR
OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...JAMAICA...AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO.  AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES...75 TO 150 MILLIMETERS...OF 
RAINFALL MAY OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA 
TONIGHT WHERE EXTENSIVE FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.6 N... 83.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR  5 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 991 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE 
CENTER AT 1 AM EST FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY  
AT 4 AM EST.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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