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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001

...MICHELLE BECOMES THE THIRTEENTH NAMED TROPICAL STORM OF
THE SEASON OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE 
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.2 WEST 
OR ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...NORTH OF OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.
THIS IS ALSO ABOUT 250 MILES...405 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
MICHELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  6 MPH... 9 KM/HR...
AND A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER
TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TONIGHT UNTIL 
THE CENTER OF THE TROPICAL STORM BECOMES BETTER DEFINED.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.
 
THE HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT IS DIMINISHING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.  
HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...
50 TO 100 MILLIMETERS...ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS 
AND NICARAGUA TONIGHT.  THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM 
MICHELLE IS DRAWING MOIST AIR FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF 
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.  THESE RAINS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.  LOCALLY HEAVY 
RAINFALL MAY ALSO BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT AND 
ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.
 
REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...16.1 N... 83.2 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 40 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 
AT 4 AM EST...THURSDAY.
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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