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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN MOVES OFFSHORE...RAINFALL THREAT
CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.3 WEST
OR  OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT 25 MILES...40 KM...NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... 
AND A GENERAL NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS THE
DEPRESSION BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  NOW THAT THE CENTER IS OFFSHORE...STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST 
AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY.
 
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...125 TO 250
MILLIMETERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA.  THE LARGE CIRCULATION OF THE
DEPRESSION IS DRAWING MOIST AIR FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF
COSTA RICA AND PANAMA.  THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...15.3 N... 83.3 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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