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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST WED OCT 31 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN MOVING NORTHWARD...CENTER LIKELY TO
MOVE OVER WATER LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  83.6 WEST OR ABOUT 
39 MILES...45 KM...WEST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR  6 MPH... 9 KM/HR... 
AND A SLOW NORTH TO NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION WILL LIKELY BRING THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION OVER THE CARIBBEAN WATERS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
OVER THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...250 TO 400
MILLIMETERS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...ARE POSSIBLE OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.  THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...14.9 N... 83.6 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR  6 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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