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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY...THREAT
OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS 
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 45 
MILES...70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS ON THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF NICARAGUA.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS TRACK
WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER LAND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN EASTERN 
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...250 TO 400 MILLIMETERS...ARE POSSIBLE...AND 
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUD SLIDES. 

REPEATING THE 10 AM EST POSITION...13.9 N... 84.0 W.  MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 PM EST.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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