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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE OCT 30 2001

...DEPRESSION INLAND AND NEARLY STATIONARY...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS 
CONTINUES...

ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...  LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR
ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO CABEZAS ON THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF NICARAGUA.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING BUT IS NEARLY STATIONARY.  A SLOW 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
THIS TRACK WOULD KEEP THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION OVER LAND TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS WHILE THE CENTER IS OVER LAND.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN EASTERN 
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS 
OF 10 TO 15 INCHES...250 TO 400 MILLIMETERS...ARE POSSIBLE...AND 
THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS 
AND MUD SLIDES. 
 
REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...13.9 N... 84.0 W.  MOVEMENT...
NEARLY STATIONARY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 35 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
10 AM EST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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