[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRIS INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  15A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001

...IRIS NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...THE 
STRONGEST OF THE SEASON...AND EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...

...AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A 
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE...AND 
FOR THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD...INCLUDING THE 
ADJACENT ISLANDS.  

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE
BORDER.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.0 WEST OR ABOUT 285 MILES...460
KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE RAPIDLY INCREASED AND
ARE NOW NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME
FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY BEFORE LANDFALL.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950 MB...28.05 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13-18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO
THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY ALONG 
THE PATH OF IRIS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 8 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 84.0 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
11 AM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Problems?