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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON OCT 08 2001
 
...LANDFALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE IRIS ONLY HOURS AWAY...

PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE BORDER.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA
EASTWARD TO LIMON.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE
YUCATAN FROM FELIPE CARRILLO PUERTO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
BELIZE.
 
AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.9 WEST OR ABOUT 105 MILES...170
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH...35 KM/HR...AND A MOTION
JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.  ON THE
PROJECTED TRACK...THE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
COAST OF BELIZE LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO 
LANDFALL...BUT IRIS IS LIKELY TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A CATEGORY FOUR 
HURRICANE.
 
IRIS REMAINS A VERY SMALL HURRICANE.  HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 145 MILES...230 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  954 MB...28.17 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13-18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY ALONG 
THE PATH OF IRIS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...16.8 N... 86.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 22 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 954 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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