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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001
 
...SMALL BUT EXTREMELY DANGEROUS IRIS CONTINUES WESTWARD...

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN FROM FELIPE
CARRILLO PUERTO SOUTHWARD TO THE BORDER WITH BELIZE.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COASTS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND HONDURAS FROM THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA
EASTWARD TO LIMON.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE
BORDER.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST OR ABOUT 225 MILES...365
KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR.  A GENERAL
WEST OR SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF WEST MOTION IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO
LANDFALL...BRINGING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...NORTHERN HONDURAS AND THE ADJACENT ISLANDS
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  ON THE PROJECTED TRACK...THE CENTER IS 
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 140 MPH...220 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL.
 
IRIS IS AN EXTREMELY SMALL HURRICANE...WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES...30 KM...FROM THE CENTER. 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  950 MB...28.05 INCHES.
 
STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 13-18 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ALONG WITH DANGEROUS LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES...LOCALLY HIGHER...ARE LIKELY ALONG 
THE PATH OF IRIS.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH 
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.0 N... 84.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...140 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 950 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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