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HURRICANE IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 08 2001

...IRIS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...BECOMING A DANGEROUS
HURRICANE...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TONIGHT...

AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER.  ALSO AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS
RECOMMENDED FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA.  A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE
BORDER.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...555
KM...EAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH ...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BRING THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE INLAND OVER
NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE 
INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 
MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  ALTHOUGH SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN 
STRENGTH MAY OCCUR TODAY...IRIS IS LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR 
HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE OF  963 MB...28.44 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF MORE THAN 10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE 
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES...ARE LIKELY NEAR AND TO 
THE RIGHT OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE CROSSES THE COAST.

REPEATING THE 5 AM EDT POSITION...17.1 N... 83.1 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...110 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 963 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 8 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 AM
EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
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