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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRIS ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN OCT 07 2001

...IRIS PASSING NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF JAMAICA...HEADING FOR 
YUCATAN...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN FROM CABO CATOCHE
SOUTHWARD.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF BELIZE LATER
TODAY.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WARNINGS AND WATCHES FOR CUBA.
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRIS WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...  LONGITUDE 77.9 WEST OR ABOUT 85 MILES...135
KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA OR 260 MILES...420 KM...EAST
SOUTHEAST OF GRAND CAYMAN.

IRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ON THIS
PATH...IRIS WILL BE HEADING TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR  85 MPH...140 KM/HR...IN A SMALL 
ARE JUT NORTH OF THE CENTER...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING 
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 115 MILES...185 KM.
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  989 MB...29.21 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 4 TO 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT JAMAICA TODAY.  

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE EXPECTED OVER JAMAICA.  THESE RAINS COULD 
CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. 

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...17.4 N... 77.9 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 17 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 85 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 989 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
EDT.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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