ZCZC MIASPFAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE MICHELLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT NOV 03 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF MICHELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM EST TUE NOV 6 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
21.7N 83.0W 50 X X X 50 MIAMI FL X 10 11 2 23
23.1N 81.4W 12 18 1 X 31 W PALM BEACH FL X 4 13 3 20
24.2N 79.0W X 7 15 1 23 FT PIERCE FL X 2 11 4 17
MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 1 2 COCOA BEACH FL X 1 7 6 14
MWCG 193N 814W 7 5 1 X 13 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X 3 7 10
MUGM 200N 751W X X X 3 3 JACKSONVILLE FL X X 1 4 5
MUCM 214N 779W X 1 8 4 13 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3
MUCF 221N 805W 6 16 2 1 25 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4
MUSN 216N 826W 46 X X X 46 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3
MUHA 230N 824W 25 8 1 X 34 WILMINGTON NC X X X 3 3
MUAN 219N 850W 25 X X X 25 MOREHEAD CITY NC X X X 3 3
MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X X 2 2
MYMM 224N 730W X X X 7 7 KEY WEST FL 3 22 2 X 27
MYSM 241N 745W X X 1 12 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X 12 7 1 20
MYEG 235N 758W X X 4 11 15 FT MYERS FL X 7 9 1 17
MYAK 241N 776W X 1 14 5 20 VENICE FL X 4 7 2 13
MYNN 251N 775W X X 14 7 21 TAMPA FL X 1 5 4 10
MYGF 266N 787W X 1 14 6 21 CEDAR KEY FL X X 1 4 5
MARATHON FL 1 21 4 1 27
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SUN
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON
C FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON
D FROM 1PM MON TO 1PM TUE
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM TUE
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
NNNN
Problems?
![[NCEP Logo]](/graphics/ncep.gif){kind=small}