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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST FRI NOV 02 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF MICHELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 17.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.9 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST MON NOV 5 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
19.2N 84.2W 49 X X X 49 MARATHON FL X X 3 9 12
20.2N 84.2W 26 1 1 X 28 MIAMI FL X X 1 7 8
21.3N 83.9W 7 12 2 2 23 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 6 6
MKJP 179N 768W X X X 2 2 FT PIERCE FL X X X 5 5
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 4 4 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 4 4
MWCG 193N 814W 9 3 2 2 16 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 2 2
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 6 6 KEY WEST FL X X 5 8 13
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 5 7 13 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 8 10
MUSN 216N 826W 1 11 4 3 19 FT MYERS FL X X 1 8 9
MUHA 230N 824W X 4 7 6 17 VENICE FL X X 1 7 8
MUAN 219N 850W 2 15 3 2 22 TAMPA FL X X X 6 6
MMCZ 205N 869W 9 5 2 2 18 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 4 4
MZBZ 175N 883W X X 1 2 3 ST MARKS FL X X X 2 2
MHNJ 165N 859W 1 1 2 2 6 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 3 3
MYEG 235N 758W X X X 3 3 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 3 3
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 5 5 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 4 4 GULF 29N 85W X X X 5 5
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 5 5 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4
MMMD 210N 897W X 1 1 3 5 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM SAT TO 1PM SAT
C FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN
D FROM 1AM SUN TO 1AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER BEVEN
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