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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST WED OCT 31 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF MICHELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM EST SAT NOV 3 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
18.0N 83.8W 55 X X X 55 MMMD 210N 897W X X 1 8 9
18.9N 84.1W 36 1 X X 37 MARATHON FL X X 1 7 8
20.0N 84.4W 18 9 1 1 29 MIAMI FL X X X 5 5
MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 3 3
MWCG 193N 814W 2 7 3 3 15 FT PIERCE FL X X X 2 2
MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 2 2
MUCF 221N 805W X X 3 7 10 KEY WEST FL X X 3 7 10
MUSN 216N 826W X 9 6 3 18 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 6 7
MUHA 230N 824W X 2 7 6 15 FT MYERS FL X X X 6 6
MUAN 219N 850W 1 13 5 3 22 VENICE FL X X X 5 5
MMCZ 205N 869W 1 8 5 4 18 TAMPA FL X X X 3 3
MZBZ 175N 883W X X 3 4 7 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 2 2
MGPB 157N 886W X X X 3 3 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 2 2
MHNJ 165N 859W 4 3 3 2 12 GULF 29N 85W X X X 3 3
MNPC 141N 834W X 1 1 1 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 2 2
MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 89W X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W X X X 2 2 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2
MYGF 266N 787W X X X 2 2
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 7PM THU TO 7AM FRI
C FROM 7AM FRI TO 7PM FRI
D FROM 7PM FRI TO 7PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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