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TROPICAL STORM JERRY PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST SUN OCT 07 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.2 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST WED OCT 10 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
12.8N 61.2W 52 X X X 52 TISX 177N 648W X 5 12 1 18
13.8N 63.9W 1 33 X X 34 TIST 183N 650W X 2 11 2 15
14.6N 66.4W X 8 17 1 26 TJPS 180N 666W X 1 14 4 19
SKPG 125N 717W X X X 7 7 MDSD 185N 697W X X 2 16 18
TNCC 122N 690W X X 5 6 11 MDCB 176N 714W X X 1 17 18
SVMG 110N 640W 1 13 1 X 15 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 16 16
TTPP 106N 614W 22 2 X X 24 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 12 12
TTPT 112N 608W 40 X X X 40 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 3 3
TGPY 120N 618W 39 2 X X 41 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 7 7
TBPB 131N 595W 67 X X X 67 TJSJ 184N 661W X 1 12 4 17
TVSV 131N 612W 52 X X X 52 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 15 15
TLPL 138N 610W 51 X X X 51 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 9 9
TFFF 146N 610W 41 2 X X 43 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 6 6
TDPR 153N 614W 24 10 X X 34 ST CROIX VI X 5 12 1 18
TFFR 163N 615W 7 15 X X 22 ST THOMAS VI X 2 11 2 15
TAPA 171N 618W 1 13 1 X 15 SAN JUAN PR X 1 12 4 17
TKPK 173N 627W X 14 2 X 16 PONCE PR X 1 14 4 19
TNCM 181N 631W X 6 5 1 12
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON
C FROM 2PM MON TO 2AM TUE
D FROM 2AM TUE TO 2AM WED
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM WED
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER STEWART
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