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TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI SEP 14 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.1 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM EDT MON SEP 17 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
28.2N 81.0W 41 X X X 41 MOREHEAD CITY NC X 1 5 4 10
29.5N 80.0W 21 2 X X 23 CAPE HATTERAS NC X X 4 6 10
30.5N 78.0W 2 10 2 2 16 NORFOLK VA X X 2 5 7
MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 1 2 OCEAN CITY MD X X 1 5 6
MUCF 221N 805W X 1 1 1 3 ATLANTIC CITY NJ X X X 5 5
MUHA 230N 824W X 1 1 1 3 NEW YORK CITY NY X X X 4 4
MYSM 241N 745W X X 1 3 4 MONTAUK POINT NY X X X 3 3
MYEG 235N 758W X X 2 2 4 PROVIDENCE RI X X X 3 3
MYAK 241N 776W X 2 3 1 6 NANTUCKET MA X X X 3 3
MYNN 251N 775W X 3 4 2 9 HYANNIS MA X X X 2 2
MYGF 266N 787W 8 5 1 1 15 BOSTON MA X X X 2 2
MARATHON FL 6 3 1 1 11 KEY WEST FL 6 2 1 X 9
MIAMI FL 15 1 1 X 17 MARCO ISLAND FL 69 X X X 69
W PALM BEACH FL 23 1 X X 24 FT MYERS FL 78 X X X 78
FT PIERCE FL 32 1 X X 33 VENICE FL 74 X X X 74
COCOA BEACH FL 36 X X X 36 TAMPA FL 40 X X X 40
DAYTONA BEACH FL 27 1 X X 28 CEDAR KEY FL 16 1 1 X 18
JACKSONVILLE FL 12 4 1 X 17 ST MARKS FL 2 4 X 1 7
SAVANNAH GA 2 7 2 1 12 APALACHICOLA FL 1 2 1 X 4
CHARLESTON SC X 7 3 2 12 PANAMA CITY FL X 1 1 X 2
MYRTLE BEACH SC X 5 4 2 11 GULF 29N 85W 1 3 X 1 5
WILMINGTON NC X 3 5 2 10
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM SAT
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2AM SAT TO 2PM SAT
C FROM 2PM SAT TO 2AM SUN
D FROM 2AM SUN TO 2AM MON
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM MON
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER AVILA
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