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HURRICANE ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM AST WED SEP 12 2001
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 61.6 WEST
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST SAT SEP 15 2001
LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E
39.5N 59.2W 28 X X 1 29 SABLE ISLAND NS X 7 6 1 14
41.5N 57.0W 9 11 1 X 21 SYDNEY NS X X 6 4 10
44.0N 54.5W X 10 6 1 17 EDDY POINT NS X 1 5 3 9
BAR HARBOR ME X X X 2 2 PTX BASQUES NFLD X X 3 6 9
EASTPORT ME X X 1 2 3 BURGEO NFLD X X 4 6 10
ST JOHN NB X X 1 2 3 ILE ST PIERRE X 1 7 5 13
MONCTON NB X X 1 3 4 CAPE RACE NFLD X 1 9 4 14
YARMOUTH NS X X 2 2 4 HIBERNIA OILFLD X X 6 6 12
HALIFAX NS X 1 4 2 7
COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 2PM THU TO 2AM FRI
C FROM 2AM FRI TO 2PM FRI
D FROM 2PM FRI TO 2PM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
FORECASTER PASCH
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