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HURRICANE ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  40
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM AST WED SEP 12 2001
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 38.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE  62.9 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM AST SAT SEP 15 2001
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
38.7N  59.9W      32  X  X  X 32   SABLE ISLAND NS    X  4  6  3 13
40.0N  58.2W       9 10  1  1 21   SYDNEY NS          X  X  3  5  8
41.4N  56.7W       X 11  4  2 17   EDDY POINT NS      X  1  3  4  8
EASTPORT ME        X  X  1  1  2   PTX BASQUES NFLD   X  X  1  5  6
ST JOHN NB         X  X  1  2  3   BURGEO NFLD        X  X  1  6  7
MONCTON NB         X  X  1  2  3   ILE ST PIERRE      X  X  2  7  9
YARMOUTH NS        X  X  2  2  4   CAPE RACE NFLD     X  X  2  7  9
HALIFAX NS         X  1  3  3  7   HIBERNIA OILFLD    X  X  X  5  5
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
C FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
D FROM  2AM FRI TO  2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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