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TROPICAL STORM ERIN PROBABILITIES NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2001
 
PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF ERIN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  57.3 WEST
 
CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH  2AM EDT SAT SEP  8 2001
 
LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E   LOCATION           A  B  C  D  E
 
20.7N  61.4W      56  X  X  X 56   TIST 183N 650W     X  3  2  1  6
22.0N  62.7W      10 30  X  X 40   TJPS 180N 666W     X  X  1  1  2
23.2N  64.0W       X 21 10  1 32   TJSJ 184N 661W     X  X  2  2  4
TAPA 171N 618W     2  X  X  1  3   ST CROIX VI        X  2  1  1  4
TKPK 173N 627W     2  2  1  X  5   ST THOMAS VI       X  3  2  1  6
TNCM 181N 631W     6  6  X  1 13   SAN JUAN PR        X  X  2  2  4
TISX 177N 648W     X  2  1  1  4   PONCE PR           X  X  1  1  2
 
COLUMN DEFINITION   PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM THU
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM  2AM THU TO  2PM THU
C FROM  2PM THU TO  2AM FRI
D FROM  2AM FRI TO  2AM SAT
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO  2AM SAT
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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