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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
1500Z MON OCT 15 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 114.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.6N 116.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.3N 117.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 114.7W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.2N 118.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 21.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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