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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
0300Z MON OCT 15 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.9W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.9W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 115.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.9W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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